Sonia Gandhi is at pains to state that the general election will be held as scheduled in 2009. But actions speak louder than words. Which should we believe? The higher public profile for Rahul Gandhi, the concern for farmers, the whopping Pay Commission sops on the way, the newfound concern for Dalits and tribals – the impact of these and other recent measures is unlikely to be sustained till 2009. There are other symptoms that need to be watched.

     Prakash Karat says that if the government persists with the Indo-US Nuclear Deal the Left parties will withdraw support. He said the government must obtain an electoral mandate for the deal. Next Monday the meeting between the UPA and the Left is expected to finally determine things.

     However, Indian Ambassador to the US Ronen Sen reiterated Thursday that the government stood committed to the Nuclear Deal. Earlier Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherji had said that a minority government cannot sign a major international deal. But subsequently in a thinly veiled snub US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher said there was no problem for the US to sign the deal with a minority government. If the Congress pushes ahead with the deal the Left is committed to withdraw support and the government will fall. That means a snap poll. Can the Congress risk it?

     On the face of it, no. Punters would not give the Congress a dog’s chance. But what if the Congress as desperate gambler does take a chance? What strategy could it follow to maximize its MPs tally? To concretize the budgetary and other sops it would have to reach out to the genuine aam admi constituency. It just does not have the organization to do that. So it must align with parties that do have the required organizational base. That means the BSP in much of the northern states. In Tamil Nadu the DMK and PMK are already aligned. In Andhra, Chief Minister Raj Shekhar Reddy has already exposed his links with the Maoist groups. Can those links be extended across the entire Red Corridor where the Maoists exert maximum influence? It is estimated they could affect over fifty seats.

     During his recent visit to Orissa, Rahul Gandhi without informing security disappeared for four hours late night to meet unknown people. In response to criticism for not informing security he later said: “I wanted to remove the distance between leader and the people. I know the concerns of security. I don’t need the permission of SPG or SP to meet people.” With which people precisely did he seek to remove his distance? If security can be whimsically ignored, how are security arrangements justified at all? There would have been no need for secrecy if ordinary people were met. But there would have been the need for great secrecy if Maoist leaders were met. And if such a meeting did take place be sure it would have been for a nationwide poll understanding. Could Rahul’s breaching of security in Etawah be a ruse to deflect attention away from the Orissa episode?

     The truth will not be known until Gandhi explains his nocturnal disappearance. Two plus two makes four, but sometimes it makes twenty-two.